|
|
Your Football-Data Guide to Betting
Affiliate Disclosure: Football-Data's revenues come from losses accrued by customers of advertised bookmakers. Nearly all bettors lose in the long run. Users taking advantage of any advertised welcome offer should familiarise themselves with the bookmaker's T&Cs. Any information appearing on this website, including references to winning, profit, beating odds/bookmakers etc. should not be considered professional advice or a recommendation to bet or gamble. Furthermore, the small proportion of customers considered by bookmakers to be sufficiently skilled at beating their prices may find their stakes restricted or have their accounts closed. Both the UK Government and bookmakers alike maintain that betting and gambling in the UK should be considered a form of entertainment only and not a trade to make money. Please gamble responsibly. NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose. GambleAware.
See here for additional disclaimer.
|
|
In my new book, Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling, I explore the science of probability and uncertainty, the difference between expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, luck & skill, market efficiency and the wisdom of crowds, why winners take all and why indeed we gamble at all.
From: Amazon | Google | Waterstones | High Stakes. |
It has been said that 97% of gamblers fail to turnover a profit over the long term. Everyone can get lucky and win a bet, even if it's a longshot on Exeter to beat Manchester United at Old Trafford at fixed odds of 50/1. The much harder task, over many bets, is to consistently win more that one loses. The reason, of course, is because the "odds" or probabilities, literally speaking, are stacked against the punter, since as we know the bookmaker, who sets the odds, is not in the game for charitable purposes. Those odds contain an in-built advantage for the bookmaker such that if the punter bets blindly or randomly, he will surely lose over the long term, just as he would at any casino roulette wheel. That so many punters are actually losing long term is merely confirmation that the bookmaker's advantage, or overround is particularly difficult to overcome.
The traditional approach to beating the bookmaker has been through forecasting and prediction techniques commonly referred to as rating systems in an attempt to reveal errors by the bookmaker. As such, the punter, here, is approaching sports betting in exactly the same manner as the bookmaker; that is to estimate the chance of a particular result and assign to it an odds value. Profitable betting opportunities arise where the odds estimated by the punter are more accurate than those estimated by the bookmaker. If, after the bookmaker's in-built advantage has been taken into account, their odds are still more generous than the punter's, this presents what is termed a value bet.
Just browse the contents of this guide via the menu links to the left to learn more about value betting and other topics published in my book Fixed Odds Sports Betting: Statistical Forecasting & Risk Management.
|
|
Fixed Odds Sports Betting This book examines, through various numerical techniques, how fixed odds punters may learn to beat the bookmaker, protect profits through a sensible approach to risk management, and turn high-risk gambling into a form of low-risk investment. Topics include value betting, rating systems, profitability and risk, singles vs accies, staking plans and money management, favourite-longshot bias and significance testing.
Order from Amazon or High Stakes. |
© Football-Data. Liability Disclaimer. All Rights Reserved.
|
|
|